Woohoo! TO Showing True Colors in Dallas

I love it! TO the sociopath is back. ESPN's Ed Werder wrote a long article about the dischord that's brewing in Dallas. You can read the full piece here.

As someone who's been through it before, I have no sympathy for the Cowboys. They knew what they were getting. Yes, one of the most talented players in NFL history, but also one of the biggest head cases this side of Jack Nicholson in One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest.

Keep going TO. Spread that cancer in Dallas as far and wide as you can. Don't stop until they release or suspend you. You're right! You do deserve the ball more, so do whatever you need to get what you want. Don't hold back. Attack everyone. Wine, pout, scream and shout. Dog it in practice. Bitch during the games. Call a meeting with the coach and GM. You are righteous and worthy.

Yes you can and Yes you should!

Analysis of Eagles Playoff Chances

Yes, I know I said a few weeks back that the Birds were not going to make the Playoffs. In the spirit of a season of highs and lows (i.e. inconsistency), I'm proud to say I was wrong. Or rather, that the door is not closed. They have a shot. Here's my take on what may happen, done without the aid of any of playoff scenario calculators or any of that nonsense.

First things first, the Eagles must win their final 3 games. Monday night against Cleveland, the following week in Washington, and closing out the season against the Cowboys at home. While it might not be a mathematical certainty, I cannot see them making the playoffs if they lose even one of those games, as that would put them at 9 wins and open up the field to teams like the Bears, Saints and Redskins. As it is, if they win out, they're still only going to be 10-5-1. The tie very well could either get them in, or keep them out.

For purposes of this analysis, I'm only considering the teams that are currently ahead of the Eagles in the Wild Card race because, like I said above, they need to win out to really have a shot. As of today, there are 3 teams ahead of them: Tampa at 9-4, Dallas at 8-5, and Atlanta at 8-5. If the season ended today, Tampa and Dallas would be the NFC's Wild Card teams.

Of the 3 teams being considered, I think Tampa has the easiest schedule. @ Atlanta, and then the Chargers and Raiders at home. While I'd love to see them implode after losing to Carolina on Monday night, the team is coached by Jon Gruden, so that's unlikely. I think there's a reasonable chance they win all 3 of their remaining games, especially with no games in cold weather over the last 3 weeks of the season. At worst, they probably win 2 of the 3 games, putting them at 11-5.

Dallas has the toughest schedule. They host the Giants and Baltimore, and then travel to Philly for a Week 17 showdown that very well might determine the second Wild Card spot. If both the Birds and the 'Boys win their next two, that would put the Eagles at 9-5-1, and the Cowboys at 10-5 headed into their matchup in Philly. In that scenario, if the Eagles win-out, the tie gets them in the Playoffs. More likely, however, is that Dallas will at least lose one of their next 2 games, putting them at 9-6 before the Eagles game. The tie has no impact on this scenario if the Eagles beat the Cowboys. Dallas is on shaky ground right now, so there's a chance they lose their next 2 games, which would effectively take them out of the hunt, and continue the winless playoff record for Romo and Wade Phillips. That would make me happy.

Last but not least is the Falcons, who have had an incredible year led by rookie QB Matt Ryan. Their final 3 games are Tampa, @ Minnesota, and then St. Louis. Again, no cold weather games for this team. I think there's a good chance they only beat St. Louis, putting their record at 9-7. A great year for a team that no one expected anything from, but not enough to get them into the playoffs in the tight NFC.

It's all clear now, right? Seriously, in a way, I think the Eagles control their destiny--if and only if they win out. Atlanta isn't going to win all of their remaining games, and we have the extra half game to help us with the Cowboys even if they pull out a miracle and win their next 2 before closing the season with a loss in Philly.

One thing that's interesting is that all of the Eagles remaining games are in cold weather. Because cold weather games are often lower scoring, closer affairs, it probably means that the margin of error for the Eagles is very, very small. They have to play superb football and not make mistakes to win the next 3. Here's to hoping that they don't lay an egg against Cleveland on Monday night and throw all of this to shit. I don't expect it to happen, but I tell you this. I won't be the slightest bit surprised if it does.

Whaddya Know, the Eagles Beat the Giants!

I don't think there's a team in the NFL that epitomizes Dr. Jeckyl and Mr. Hyde more so than the Philadelphia Eagles. The latest example comes after they dominated arguably the best team in the NFL on their home turf. The game was not nearly as close as the final score of 20-14 indicated. One of the TDs came on a blocked FG, and the other came late in the 4th Quarter when the Eagles were in a Prevent D. Preventing what, I'm not sure. Maybe preventing them from stopping the Giants. But whatever--every NFL does that.

D Mac completed almost 2/3 of his passes, Westbrook carried the ball 33 times (not a typo), and the D held the Giants dominant running game to 88 yards. The offense had long, sustained drives, and the D was shut-down. Aside from the running game, one big difference in Sunday's version of the Eagles is that people made plays--particularly Donovan's receivers. They didn't drop balls and they fought for the extra yards, picking up first downs and keeping drives alive. The Eagles were clearly the better team on Sunday.

So, why the Jeckyl and Hyde? The biggest reason is the health of Brian Westbrook, arguably the most well-rounded RB in the league when he's healthy. Andy Reid never let on how hurt Westbrook must've been earlier in the year, hence the heavy reliance on the passing game. The lesson here is that if Reid doesn't trust the RB backups he currently has, he better upgrade them next year. RBs get hurt, and you need a viable alternative if you don't want one injury to tank your whole season.

With every other team in the division losing Sunday, the Eagles are still in the thick of the NFC playoff race. It is very likely that the tie on their record will make a difference at the end of the season. Let's just hope that the extra half win gets us in the Playoffs, as opposed to the other way around.

Next up is a Monday night game against the hapless Browns. My expectations are still low, but I'm hopeful that the Birds are finally finding their stride and will win this game in convincing fashion.

What About USC?

Amid all the current and impending controversy surrounding the BCS standings, there's one team no one is talking about that I think deserves to be in the conversation. And that's the USC Trojans.

The Trojans are getting dinged because they play in the Pac-10 and because their single loss came to a sub-par team--the Oregon State Beavers. But that's not their fault. They can't relocate to the SEC or Big 12, nor can they adjust their schedule to play those teams more frequently. But they are a one loss team just like the rest of the teams in contention for the national title. They have the best D in the nation, and their offense is explosive. In no way would a game against Florida, Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas, or Texas Tech be a foregone conclusion. USC would give all those teams a run for their money, and anyone who argues otherwise is full of it.

I know I'm beating a dead horse here, but again, this shows a major flaw in the current system. USC (and Penn State too!) should have an opportunity to compete for the title, as their record is the same as everyone else's in the mix, other than 'Bama.

If money is the issue, I'm sure all the smart folks running the NCAA can figure out a way to have some sort of playoff system generate more revenue than the current system does. It's not that hard--more big games will equal more money. Please, fix the system. It stinks.

Eagles 2008 Season Log: Week 13, Turkey Day Treat

Twelve weeks into the Eagles 2008 NFL campaign (which many argue is already over), the results of their Turkey Day outing in Philadelphia should not surprise anyone. Not because they're a good team, but because if there's one word that describes this years version of the Eagles, it's inconsistent.

The Eagles destroyed the visiting Arizona Cardinals on Thursday night 48-20 and improved their record to 6-5-1. McNabb rebounded and threw 4 TD passes, the team ran the ball 40 times (including QB rushes), Westbrook had 2 rushing and 2 receiving TDs, and the D kept the pass-happy Cardinals pretty much in check. The Cardinals have yet to win on the East Coast, but they have one of the best offenses in the league and will win their division, so they're not the same Cardinals we're used to. Regardless, given some of my recent posts about the importance of running the ball, they should not be surprised at the outcome of this game considering that they only ran the ball only 10 times. That's not a typo.

I have no false hopes for the Eagles, despite what was probably their best all around game all season. They've lost too many close games already, and 3 of their last 4 games are against NFC East opponents--all of whom are strong. But I am glad to see that they were able to put a complete game together. What is baffling though is why it took Andy Reid until the 12th game of the season to mix it up a little. It appears that he finally handed over the play calling responsibilities to Marty Morningwhig, and the results were obvious. This is Andy Reid's 10th season as the Head Coach of the Eagles. It shouldn't take this long for someone with his experience to adapt--especially when the results were not as expected (losses instead of wins). I guess he knows more than we do? Maybe?

The Eagles next 4 games are tough: at the Giants, Cleveland, at the Redskins, and then Dallas at home. Again, I have no false hopes that they're going to win out and make the playoffs. Looking at the conference standings should make that obvious to anyone who thinks they still have a shot. But the next 4 games should determine what next year will bring for us. Is the McNabb era really over? Are coaching changes (Reid, or his coordinators) in order? It's too early to say, and Jeff Lurie hasn't showed his hand yet. But it will be interesting. I'm not sure yet what my opinion is, but I'm excited to see how it all plays out. One thing's for sure--it can't be worse than the recent 3 game stretch that flushed the season down the toilet.

Some Psychotherapy for McNabb (+ a diagnosis of our WRs)

As you can probably ascertain from my posts, I'm a huge fan of Donovan. He single-handedly brought me back into the fold as an Eagles fan, after the long dark years of Rich Kotite and Ray Rhodes. Despite this, my loyalty is obviously with the Eagles. And on Sunday, when Andy Reid benched him in a 3 pt game, I really was ready to say goodbye to the McNabb era. I'd had enough of the torture--especially this year.

But like any self-deprecating Eagles fan, there's still a glimmer of hope in my heart that maybe it's not over. Maybe they will, in fact, go on an incredible run and make the playoffs this year. Or at least be in contention until the end of the season. Don't hate on me--I know it's a long shot. But before the last two games, the team wasn't that far off from winning a couple of the games they lost.

So, you ask, what's the problem? Me and everyone else who cares has already identified a few main things: playcalling has been questionable, there's no running game, the WRs stink, the D has been inconsistent--especially when it comes to stopping big-time RBs (see Clinton Portis, the Giants trio of Earth/Wind/Fire, and others), we're getting no production from our Tight Ends, and of late, the QB has just been plain awful.

Anyone who has watched McNabb over the years knows that he's not an awful QB. He might not be the second coming of Joe Montana, but for about a 5 year stretch--before the TO debacle--he was pretty darn good. Accurate, not turnover prone, could do damage with both his arms and his legs, and is (still) probably one of the hardest QBs to bring down in NFL history. He was a winner, and the first year he had a Pro Bowler to throw to, he put up amazing numbers and the team went to the Super Bowl. His run of success wasn't a fluke.

The problem this year is not his physical health. It's everything above, and the fact that something has gotten into Donovan's head. Maybe it's the pressure of having to win games all by himself. Maybe it's a lack of confidence in his WRs. Maybe he's just sick of being abused by the Philly media. Honestly, it's probably a bit of everything. Donovan can take some steps clear his head, but the coaching staff can probably have a much bigger impact, but upping the pressure on the rest of the team, committing to the run, and calling better plays.

Specifically, our WRs need to re-earn McNabb's trust by showing up for work, and delivering. The teamwide case of stone-hands has to be cured, DeSean needs to play beyond his years of experience and stop making mistakes, and these guys need to get open. I don't care how, but get open. Pass protection hasn't been the problem. The problem is that if you have a bunch of WRs who are never open, it doesn't matter how much time you have in the pocket. It's very clear to me that McNabb has sincere doubts about throwing the ball to any of these guys, and it's in their control to get their sh*t together and start playing like they belong in the league. The team has consistently dressed 6 guys every week. Their playing time should be threatened if they drop balls. And two of them--any two--need to step up and act like they want to be the starters. All of them need to play with the sense of urgency that if they fail, their careers are on the line. And unfortunately, I haven't seen that from any of our WRs this year. They're all crappy.

Nevertheless, regardless of how dim it is, the glimmer of hope still shines in my heart. It won't be a hard fall for me emotionally if the team doesn't go on a little run, but I'd love to see it happen.

The McNabb Era is Over! Wait, No It Isn't!

Big Red announced today that Donovan McNabb hasn't lost his position as starting QB and will return to the field on Turkey Day to face the Cardinals at home. All the commentators are saying that McNabb still gives the team a better chance to win, and Reid thinks that "...by stepping back a few inches, you can go forward a mile..." I don't disagree with either philosophy, but the last 6 games are shaping up to be fun and soap-operatic. We can't get worse as a team, but the drama could certainly increase a bit!

The two things that are most clear to me today are:

1) Kevin Kolb ain't ready for prime time. I have a hard time believing he'll ever be until he shaves that mustache. He pretty much looks like a kicker when he has his helmet on; and
2) The Eagles have to run the ball. Like I said in my last post, the worst that can happen is the status quo, which is a regular dose of 3 and outs. Actually, we're much less apt to turn the ball over so much by investing in the run.

Andy will be tempted to keep the same game plan against the Cardinals, but I guarantee that if we do, the results will be the same. Give Don a chance to get his head back on straight.