Analysis of Eagles Playoff Chances

Yes, I know I said a few weeks back that the Birds were not going to make the Playoffs. In the spirit of a season of highs and lows (i.e. inconsistency), I'm proud to say I was wrong. Or rather, that the door is not closed. They have a shot. Here's my take on what may happen, done without the aid of any of playoff scenario calculators or any of that nonsense.

First things first, the Eagles must win their final 3 games. Monday night against Cleveland, the following week in Washington, and closing out the season against the Cowboys at home. While it might not be a mathematical certainty, I cannot see them making the playoffs if they lose even one of those games, as that would put them at 9 wins and open up the field to teams like the Bears, Saints and Redskins. As it is, if they win out, they're still only going to be 10-5-1. The tie very well could either get them in, or keep them out.

For purposes of this analysis, I'm only considering the teams that are currently ahead of the Eagles in the Wild Card race because, like I said above, they need to win out to really have a shot. As of today, there are 3 teams ahead of them: Tampa at 9-4, Dallas at 8-5, and Atlanta at 8-5. If the season ended today, Tampa and Dallas would be the NFC's Wild Card teams.

Of the 3 teams being considered, I think Tampa has the easiest schedule. @ Atlanta, and then the Chargers and Raiders at home. While I'd love to see them implode after losing to Carolina on Monday night, the team is coached by Jon Gruden, so that's unlikely. I think there's a reasonable chance they win all 3 of their remaining games, especially with no games in cold weather over the last 3 weeks of the season. At worst, they probably win 2 of the 3 games, putting them at 11-5.

Dallas has the toughest schedule. They host the Giants and Baltimore, and then travel to Philly for a Week 17 showdown that very well might determine the second Wild Card spot. If both the Birds and the 'Boys win their next two, that would put the Eagles at 9-5-1, and the Cowboys at 10-5 headed into their matchup in Philly. In that scenario, if the Eagles win-out, the tie gets them in the Playoffs. More likely, however, is that Dallas will at least lose one of their next 2 games, putting them at 9-6 before the Eagles game. The tie has no impact on this scenario if the Eagles beat the Cowboys. Dallas is on shaky ground right now, so there's a chance they lose their next 2 games, which would effectively take them out of the hunt, and continue the winless playoff record for Romo and Wade Phillips. That would make me happy.

Last but not least is the Falcons, who have had an incredible year led by rookie QB Matt Ryan. Their final 3 games are Tampa, @ Minnesota, and then St. Louis. Again, no cold weather games for this team. I think there's a good chance they only beat St. Louis, putting their record at 9-7. A great year for a team that no one expected anything from, but not enough to get them into the playoffs in the tight NFC.

It's all clear now, right? Seriously, in a way, I think the Eagles control their destiny--if and only if they win out. Atlanta isn't going to win all of their remaining games, and we have the extra half game to help us with the Cowboys even if they pull out a miracle and win their next 2 before closing the season with a loss in Philly.

One thing that's interesting is that all of the Eagles remaining games are in cold weather. Because cold weather games are often lower scoring, closer affairs, it probably means that the margin of error for the Eagles is very, very small. They have to play superb football and not make mistakes to win the next 3. Here's to hoping that they don't lay an egg against Cleveland on Monday night and throw all of this to shit. I don't expect it to happen, but I tell you this. I won't be the slightest bit surprised if it does.