Veterans Keeping Eagles Grounded

As Rich Hoffman pointed out on philly.com this morning, there are 6 Eagles for whom Sunday will be their 5th NFC Championship with the team. Those 6 are McNabb, Dawkins, Tra Thomas, John Runyan, Correll Buckhalter (injured during two, but still on the team) and David Akers.

None of these men can be considered young any more by NFL standards, but they are hungry, I guarantee it. They've gotten close before, only to have the window slammed shut before either getting to the Super Bowl, or in 2005, after winning the Championship game only to lose a close game in the Super Bowl.

All these guys, with the exception of Buckhalter (not his fault), play important roles on the field and are respected veterans off it. Other guys will have to step up and make plays no doubt, but the experience and leadership of this group could be the difference on Sunday. Or at least it's an assurance that the team will show up and not lay an egg.

We'll see.

Birds in the Super Bowl? Here's How.

As Andy Reid, Donovan McNabb, Brian Dawkins and others prepare for their 5th NFC Championship game, here's my take on what they need to do to win.

1. Protect the QB. Arizona is coming in to the game confident. They won their first game on the East Coast last weekend, their D picked off Jake Delhomme 5 times, and they finally found a running game. Because their playing at home, the only aspect of this that the Eagles need to be especially prepared for is their Defense. They're feeling emboldened and will no doubt attempt a variety of things to get to McNabb. Reid has to gameplan for this, and the O-line has to play well. In all likelihood, that means keeping them off balance with a mix of running and pass plays, and also beating the blitz and converting 3rd downs. Besides TDs, home crowds love sacks and turnovers, so we need to stay cool and balanced, and pick them apart.

2. Defensive status quo. With just a couple exceptions, the D has been playing well all season long. This is especially true since Thankgiving, since which the team has surrendered only 8 TDs and held opponents to 12 points on average in the 6 games. If they play as well as they have been, they should have no problem stopping Arizona's running game, forcing them to pass, and opening up Warner for pressure that he can't handle. If this happens, the rest will take care of itself, no matter how well Boldin and Fitzgerald play.

3. Limit dropped passes. The Eagles offense has not been playing great, but they've been getting the job done by playing better than their opponents--particularly since the Playoffs started. Arizona will likely score some points--their QB is after all a HOF'er who has had an exceptional year--so we're going to need to play better than we did last week to win the game. Conditions should allow for that given the weather in Arizona. Our WRs need to make some of the catches they dropped last week, and as I said above, the team needs to be able to convert 3rd downs like we did last week against the Giants. I think there's the possibility of the offense breaking out and having a big game, but I'm not counting on it.

If these three things happen, the Eagles win the game. The Cards will not fall easily--they only lost 2 games at home all season, and didn't lose at home until Week 12 when the Giants came to town. The Eagles are an experienced group, so I have no doubt they're doing the right amount of prep and aren't taking the Cards lightly. We just need to execute on Sunday and we just might make it back to the Super Bowl. How about that?!?!?!?!

How the Eagles Turned It Around

Aside from the pixie dust the NFL Gods blew the Eagles way in Week 17, it's interesting to look at how the Eagles have managed to turn their season around.

First off, when s**t goes bad, the QB, especially our QB, takes the lion share of the blame. Therefore, when things go well, he deserves the lion share of the credit as well, hence the media onslaught of "McNabb is back" stories over the last few weeks. Yes, McNabb has elevated his game since Thanksgiving, but people are overreacting. He's actually been pretty consistent this year. He's part of the reason they're playing so well, but by no means the only one.

First, let's take a quick look at McNabb's season. His 2008 regular season stats are telling, but don't reveal the entire story. 3900+ yards, 23 TDs to 11 INTs, 60.4% completion rate with an 86.4 QB Rating. He had more pass attempts and more yards than he's ever had in his career, and his completion percentage was his 3rd best. All solid numbers, but nothing spectacular.

The low points of the season were Week 4 against the Bears, Week 5 against the Redskins, Week 12 against Baltimore, and Week 16 against the Redskins.

In Week 4, McNabb threw 41 passes in a relatively tight game against the Bears in Chicago. This was the game in which the Eagles could not convert a 1st and 4 from the Bears 4 yard line in the 4th quarter. Earlier in the game, they had to settle for a FG after 2nd and 4 from the Chicago 6. And don't forget, Kyle Orton looked like Tom Brady in this game. A week later against the Redskins, the Eagles jumped out to a 14 point lead in the 1st quarter, but the team attempted only 18 rushes throughout the game, and the Redskins rushed for 189 yards.

The team then went on a run and won 3 of 4, losing only to the Giants in a game where we gave up 200+ rushing yards and 36 points.

Then came the next series of low points. First, the now infamous tie in Cincinnati. McNabb threw 58 passes in that game and even with 5 full quarters of play, the team only attempted 16 rushes. 16. When any NFL defense knows exactly what you're going to do on offense (run v. pass), it's very hard to win. The following week in Baltimore, McNabb was benched after an 8/18 half in which he threw 2 INTs, yet the team was losing only 10-7 at halftime. Baltimore is arguably the team that screws up opposing QBs more than anyone, so only being down 3 points at halftime on the road was not a crises. McNabb was benched though, and the Eagles went on to lose 36-7. They attempted a whopping total of 16 rushing attempts in this game.

Beginning on Thanksgiving, the Birds started yet another run beating the Cardinals, the Browns, and the Giants. The resurgence was no doubt led by the Defense, as they had 4 TOs against the Cardinals and held them to 25 rushing yards. The next week, they held the Plaxico-less Giants to barely more than 200 yards offense and 14 points. The following week, they held the Browns to 10 points.

They were back in the Playoff hunt, ready for a Week 16 game against the out-of-it Redskins. The results? A 10-3 loss in which the only TD came on an 18 yard drive by the Skins after a McNabb fumble. Rushing attempts by the Eagles this game? 16. Seemingly, they were out of the Playoffs.

And then we all remember what happened in week 17. We destroyed the Cowboys, led by 2 defensive touchdowns and 5 turnovers.

Through it all, and even into the playoffs, McNabb hasn't been perfect, but he's been consistent, especially given that he generally does not have the chance to run a balanced offense. When he does--like he has more or less since Thanksgiving--the results are clear. The Eagles are 6-1 since that game. And they are 9-3 since their Week 6 win in San Francisco.

The team, however, has not been as consistent, hence them being out of the playoffs going into Week 17. The won games against good teams, and lost some games they should've won. The D periodically hasn't been able to stop the run. We've gotten almost no production from the TE position. And our WRs have far too many dropped passes. In the games we lost, all these factors came into play. And in the games we won, they didn't.

Last, but certainly not least, is the Offensive Line--the group that is typically the most unsung in the NFL. Without Pro Bowler Shawn Andrews all season, the O-line managed to only give up 23 sacks. By way of comparison, in 10 games in 2006, they gave up 21 sacks, and in 9 games in 2005, they gave up 19. The OL is protecting their QB, and McNabb has learned how to take advantage of that protection..

So there you go. Donovan's is back--he's healthy and confident and playing the way he did before TO and injuries killed a couple years there. But football is a team sport in every sense of the word, and all units of the team (all aspects of the organization, actually) are doing their jobs very well.

Kickoff of the NFC Championship game is just about 72 hours from now. My expectations are low, but I'm excited as heck. No one expected the Eagles to make it back after the year they've had, and they've pulled it off. I love it!

Eagles Play Like Contenders and Upset Giants

After upsetting the #1 seed Giants, the 2008 Philadelphia Eagles.....the 2008 Eagles... are one win away from the Super Bowl. Who woulda thunk it?

My 3 keys to the game were: 1)stopping the run, 2)not giving away points with big mistakes, and 3)keeping time of possession in balance. The Eagles didn't do all that well in any of these areas, especially during the first half, but they showed up, played like champs, and won every facet of the game.

The Eagles didn't stop the run, but they contained it. They gave up points on the Safety and the Fred Robbins interception, but only 5. And while the 1st half time of possession was way imbalanced in favor of the Giants, it was even at the end of the game.

The Eagles Defense probably deserves the most credit after yesterday's win, as they kept the New York Giants and their high powered offense out of the end-zone. In New Jersey. In bad conditions. They bent a few times during the game, but they didn't break. There's no doubt that if the D wasn't playing the way they are, we would not be in the Championship game.

Offensively, the first half was miserable, at least statistically speaking. They held the ball for a total of 12 minutes, McNabb threw a pick, was tackled in the end zone for a safety and was generally ineffective. But you know what? The Giants were worse, and the Eagles went into the half leading 10-8.

The second half didn't start well, with Fred Robbins catching a batted-down McNabb pass and returning it to the Eagles 33 yard line. The Giants kicked a field goal and took an 11-10 lead. This is when the game turned around. The scoreboard only shows 3 points by the Eagles during this quarter, but they chewed up 10 minutes of the clock with 2 drives, the first was for a FG, the second of which was for a TD shortly after the 4th quarter started. In between, Giants kicker John Carney missed a 47 yard field goal.

The game was still close when the 4th quarter started, even with the 7 points the Eagles put up early in the quarter. The score was 20-11. The D really stepped it up at this point, stopping the Giants on two key 4th down attempts, picking off Manning, and recovering a fumble. Kicker David Akers, who is typically bad in the Meadowlands, came through with another FG--his third of the game. Game over. Eagles 21, Giants 11.

NFC East games, especially those in January, are rarely pretty, and that held true yesterday with the lack of offense, turnovers, missed FGs, and dropped passes. But the Eagles came in cool and confident, the D was awesome, and the team made some big plays on both sides of the ball. We outplayed the defending Super Bowl champions on offense, defense, and special teams. For a change, Andy Reid also out-coached the other guy. So all-told, I'm a happy camper. After-all, it's the 2008 Eagles that are one win away from the Bowl. Woohoo!

Parity in the NFL

As we prepare for the NFL's Conference Championship games, it's worth noting that Pittsburgh is the only #1 or #2 seed remaining in the Playoffs, as the Eagles beat the #1 Giants, the Cardinals beat the #2 Panthers, and the Ravens beat the #1 Titans. When you get down to the Divisional round, I wonder if there's just so much parity in the NFL that momentum for the winning team from the Wild Card round cancels out or even supercedes any home field advantage/rest/extra planning that the #1 or #2 seeds might have? I accept Pittsburgh from this analysis given the conditions, their #1 Defense, and the fact that the Chargers are a warm weather team. Regardless of whether I'm right, I think the Championship games are gonna be awesome.

Time for Reid/McNabb Haters to Shut Up For Good

With the Eagles surprising run into the second round of the playoffs, their bandwagon has suddenly gotten crowded with Reid/McNabb bashers who can only marvel, like the rest of us, at how well the team is playing headed into the game against the Giants. Regardless of the outcome of this game, it's time for the haters among us--fans, media or both--to shut up. This is the greatest era in Eagles history, and as the team has proven since Thanksgiving, there's still some fuel in the tank.

I have to admit, I thought the era was over after McNabb was benched during the Baltimore game (which surprisingly was a 12-7 game going into the 4th quarter, and we lost 36-7). This season has been full of ups and downs, but the Baltimore game was rock bottom, and even the biggest McNabb supporters, like myself, thought it was over. Maybe not for Reid, but definitely for McNabb. He was playing some of the worst football of his career, and the team was sinking fast.

Despite the clunker against the Redskins in Week 16, the team won 4 of its last 5 games, and snuck into the playoffs after the lowly Raiders beat the Buccaneers, and we demolished the Cowboys. Everyone from the coaches to the players deserve some credit for the run they've gone on, but most importantly, Reid has proven himself (again) to be a great CEO of this organization, and Donovan McNabb has proven himself (again) to be one of the best QBs in the game.

Again, others (especially Jimmy Johnson) deserve credit, but the coach and QB deserve the most. This is the 7th time Reid has led his team to the Divisional Playoff round (all but one with McNabb as QB). Before Tom Coughlin won the Super Bowl last year, he'd achieved nowhere close to this level of success in his career--and now he's a hero. This isn't to say the team shouldn't change anything for next year (more on that after the season), but Reid should be the coach, and McNabb should be the QB, regardless of what happens in the Giants game. That combo gives us our best chance to compete for a Super Bowl, which is what we all want so very much.

Sunday's game against the Giants will be tough, and I can guarantee you that the haters will come back to life if the Eagles lose, but once and for all, please, find something else to complain about. Reid and McNabb are here to stay.

3 Keys to Beating the Giants

As I said in my previous post, I'm keeping my expectations low for this Sunday's Eagles-Giants matchup. Nevertheless, I have strong views on what the Eagles need to do to win the game. 1)Stop the run, 2)Don't give away points with big mistakes, and 3)keep the time of possession in balance. If we do these three things, we will win the game. If we falter on any of them, we will lose. Here's why.

Regarding stopping the run, this one is obvious. This is a January matchup of NFC East rivals. If you can't stop the run, and run the ball yourself (or otherwise keep time of possession in balance), you will lose. When the Eagles gave up 219 yards to the Giants in Week 10, we lost, despite scoring 31 points. When we held the Giants to 88 yards rushing in Week 14, we won the game 20-14. I think any chance the Eagles have to win the game hinges on this. If the Giants can march down the field by running the ball down our throat, we will lose the game. Biggest reason? Because we don't have the capacity to do that back to them. We'll end up having to throw the ball more predominantly than we'd planned, they'll tee off on McNabb, and we'll have a bunch of 3 and outs.

Regarding #2, in the regular season, you can win games even if you allow pick-6's or other game changing mistakes. In the Eagles Week 14 win against the Giants, a blocked FG was returned for a TD, yet we still won that game. I guarantee you that if either team on Sunday has a game changing play like this in their favor, they will win the game. Plays like that are rare, but they happen. And if they happen in the playoffs, they are fatal.

And finally, on offense, the Eagles must find a way to stay on the field by picking up first downs and keeping the time of possession in balance. Our typical flurry of 3-and-outs after 3 incomplete passes isn't going to cut it against the defending Super Bowl champs on their home turf, because the Giants can wear you down with their running game. We need to keep our defense fresh and stay competitive in the field position battle. Logic says that we'll need to run the ball to be able to do so, but in all actuality, a balanced approach is our best bet at getting it done. McNabb's gonna make some plays, but Westbrook and the O-line need to do so as well.

Maybe all this is obvious, but barring something unforeseen, if the Eagles do the above 3 things, I think they will win the game. If they fail with even one, they will lose.

Don't forget. The Giants are the defending Super Bowl champions and this year's #1 seed. They will not fall easily on their home turf.

Regardless of the outcome, here's hoping that Mr. Hyde has been terminated.

PS--The Giants have failed to sack Donovan McNabb thus far this year. I'm sure they're hungry--especially after losing 3 of their last 4 games--so the Birds will have to be ready for an onslaught of blitzes and QB pressure.

Eagles Getting Good At Exceeding My Low Expectations

As I did for Week 17, I kept my expectations very low going into last weekend's Wild Card game in Minnesota. Of course I rooted my heart out for the Birds, but if you have low expectations, you cannot be disappointed. And given the crazy world of bad news we're all surrounded by these days, I don't think I can handle any more disappointment--especially not from the 2008 Philadelphia Eagles.

Fortunately, when you have low expectations, it's also not hard to end up feeling elated, as I did with the Eagle's very solid win against the Vikings. The Defense played fantastic, shutting out the Vikes in the second half. And #5 kept his cool throughout and guided the Eagles to victory. Everyone did their part--the players played well and the coaches game-planned and coached well. Some people are upset about the lack of TDs by the offense, but this is the playoffs, where shootouts are rare. Winning in the playoffs means good field position, avoiding big mistakes, converting key 3rd downs on offense, getting stops on key 3rd downs and stopping the run. The Eagles did all of this, Akers had a great game, and we broke a big play in the second half. We did everything it takes to win in the playoffs.

While I'm happy with the effort and results from the Vikings game, I don't think that'll be good enough to beat the Giants. Don't get me wrong--I have no complaints about our performance against the Vikings--but we'll need to play our best game to beat the G-men.

Nevertheless, just a few weeks ago, I had no expectations that the Eagles would even be in the playoffs, so I'm a happy fan.